![]() The way I see it (and I am in good company), the Russians will not only be lucky not to be routed from all their gains made since February 24, but are at serious risk of losing the Donbas-Luhansk and Donetsk- and Crimea, as well as having most of their current army destroyed. Obviously, some forces will have to stay to keep Russian forces from reopening these fronts, but not too many: retreating forces are heavily demoralized and/or damaged, and will take significant time to rest, refit, and rebuild before approaching and serious level of combat effectiveness (however, abysmal Russian leadership is fairly likely to just throw their lives away in ill-planned, ill-timed offensives with troops not ready or prepared, as already happened earlier in the war over and over again under much better conditions for the Russians than they presently face if so, Ukrainian forces will maul them again as they did before). This sudden collapse of the Russian positions on three nearby fronts has freed up a huge portion of Ukraine’s military to go and relieve other fronts to the east, and, indeed, this is already happening, as was the case with the Chernihiv and Sumy fronts right after the Kyiv front collapsed. ![]() As they have been thrown out of Ukraine, many Russian units are committing war crimes along their paths of retreat if they were not committing them there and elsewhere already. Yes, Russia’s insane, hubristic, careless “ plan”-to commit forces to multiple fronts, dividing and weakening its forces over these many fronts, none of which individually succeeded in their main goals-is failing and suffered its greatest setbacks when its entire Kyiv front, itself consisting of multiple subfronts and lines of advance, and two other whole fronts in north-central Ukraine collapsed entirely, all Russian forces in the area having been destroyed, decimated, pushed back, or routed in disorder. An RGM-84 surface-to-surface Harpoon missile launches from a cruiser of the U.S. ( Russian/Русский перевод) By Brian E. Frydenborg, Ap( LinkedIn, Facebook, Twitter *Correction appended April 10 slight edit April 13 to qualify estimate of location of Russian naval presence this article was condensed and adapted as Why Russia’s Navy in Ukraine War is Doomed (or Irrelevant), published by Small Wars Journal April 13, in turn featured by Real Clear Defense on April 14, SOF News on April 15, and Indian Strategic Studies April 18 see his related, April 24 article, How Ukraine Can Take Back Crimea from Putin’s Reeling Russian Military, and see all of Brian’s coverage of Russia’s war in Ukraine here Real Context News produces commissioned content for clients upon request. Russia’s window to effectively use its navy in this war in combat or to support its forces on land is now effectively closed. ![]() Anti-ship missiles that were announced yesterday will soon be deployed in significant numbers in Ukraine will be a game-changer much like Javelin and other anti-tank missiles have been for Ukraine against Russian armor thus far in Russia’s failing war. Just twenty anti-ship missiles and their accompanying systems could wipe out all of Russia’s big warships in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. ![]()
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